The disturbance we’ve been tracking this week in the eastern Atlantic Ocean has merged into a consistent low pressure area that the National Hurricane Center designated Invest 95L late last night.
For now, the 95L scrambled eggs look left something to be desired, but as it separates from the trough of the monsoon – the umbilical cord of luscious air and background rotation – it should gradually start to organize by this weekend.
As we discussed in Monday’s newsletter, the waters across the main Atlantic development region are as warm today as they usually are when temperatures peak in late September.
With light upper winds ahead, it is not surprising that predictive models have come up with the idea of a gradual development as the system moves west towards the eastern Caribbean. While the initial intensity recommendations should be treated with a healthy dose of skepticism in these early stages of development, they have taken a more aggressive stance, pointing to the possibility of strengthening in the short term if the system takes shape.
The biggest obstacle to development in the coming days will be the dry air lurking in the north. However, predictive models keep the drought far enough away from the wetter conditions surrounding it that the drought influence may not be enough to prevent development.
Those living in or traveling to the Lesser Antilles should prepare for a tropical depression or tropical storm (next name will be Emily) approaching the area Monday through Tuesday.
Sustained high pressure north should continue to push Invest 95L, or the system that comes from it, west into the central Caribbean by mid to late next week.
Forecast for Invest 95L until next Thursday, July 27 from the European Ensemble Modeling System. Forecasts generally show continued westward movement into the central Caribbean next week. Credit: Weathernerds.org
While it’s too early to speculate about the chances of survival after a week, the pronounced dip of the subtropical jet stream over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida, undulating into the Caribbean Sea, does suggest a less favorable environment going forward. Something that we will certainly keep an eye on next week.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, the Don is now in its seventh day as a named storm, raging over the open waters of the North Atlantic. The storm will move north towards cooler waters, shutting down its tropical engine by early next week.
By the end of July, guidance with an increased range appears in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. We are approaching the time of the year when we naturally expect a surge in activity, and given the unprecedented heat in the deep Atlantic, it’s not surprising that this will happen a little earlier.
During this last stretch of July, double check your hurricane supplies and bolster your family’s preparedness plans before we enter the busiest three-month period of the hurricane season.
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