The hurricane season started quite early, but the second half of June and all of July has been fairly calm so far due to the Saharan air layer: dust from Africa that follows the same wind patterns that hurricanes bring across the Atlantic.
But in the past week, there have been signs that we have become a little more active, even if we still have nothing to worry about here in South Florida.
Tropical Storm Don is in the middle of the ocean and does not pose a threat to land. It may peak as a powerful storm with 65 mph winds, but it will quickly dissipate as it moves north into the colder waters of the North Atlantic.
Invest 95-L is the next system worth paying attention to. This perturbation is actually a small area of low pressure about halfway between Cape Verde and the Lesser Antilles.
Because it was moving straight into the Sahara Dust, its development was hampered. But the dust will start to clear after the weekend. Once we remove the dry air and then account for the scorching ocean temperatures, this system now has a 70% chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next seven days.
If it turns into a tropical storm, it will be named Emily.
There are no models that can take the storm to South Florida. Obviously we’ll be watching very closely just in case. Our European model shows that the system is moving very far south towards Central America. The GFS model shows the storm’s tracking further north, maybe even enough to increase our chances of rain by next weekend, but again, we’re not currently worried about anything significant that we need to prepare for.